Global energy markets as a catalyst for military crises in resource-dependent states

Abstract

In the context of the ongoing global transformation of energy markets, their influence on the political and security dynamics of resource-dependent states is intensifying. Price volatility in energy markets, asymmetries in resource access and the growing geopolitical competition create new destabilization risks that may evolve into military crises. Particular relevance is attached to the analysis of the relationship between the economic structure of states, their institutional capacity, and their responses to external energy shocks. The purpose of the article is to provide a comprehensive study of global energy markets as a catalyst for military crises in resource-dependent states by identifying structural preconditions, analyzing impact mechanisms, and systematizing factors that moderate conflict potential. The methodological framework is based on a systemic approach, comparative analysis, elements of political-economic modeling, and the typologization of resource-based economies. The study demonstrates that the level of conflict potential is directly related to the type of resource dependence and the nature of the state’s political regime. A typology of resource-dependent states has been developed, enabling the identification of high-risk groups. In addition, a causal mechanism has been modeled to explain how fluctuations in energy markets transform into socio-political instability, eventually leading to the escalation of military conflicts. It has been proven that institutional capacity, corruption levels, economic diversification, and geopolitical integration act as key moderators of external shocks, shaping the variability of crisis scenarios. Global energy markets function as triggers of crisis processes; however, their destructive potential is realized through internal structural imbalances of states. It is substantiated that the combination of resource dependence and institutional weakness increases vulnerability to conflict escalation, whereas diversified economies with developed institutions demonstrate greater adaptability to external shocks. The proposed analytical framework contributes to a deeper understanding of the nature of military crises and can be applied in developing strategies to enhance the resilience of resource-dependent economies.