Prospects for Regime Change in Venezuela Following the U.S. Operation Against President N. Maduro

Abstract

This article examines the reasons for the internal stability of the political regime in Venezuela after the arrest of the President of this country, N. Maduro, by US troops. The influence of key political, historical and economic factors on the formation of the current political regime is studied. Given that Venezuela has its own distinct specifics of historical development, the formation of society, economic classes and the tradition of policy formation, the study of all these aspects is an integral part of a deeper study and understanding of the processes in this country. Venezuelan politics was characterized by the significant influence of the local mestizo population, with its specific attitude to property and justice, as well as migrant European groups, the largest of which were divided into a small privileged minority endowed with property and land, and a deprived majority. This situation caused social tension with permanent explosions in the form of riots, coups and civil wars. The external influence of foreign states on Venezuela became noticeable, and in some cases, decisive, starting from the 20th century, since the conflicts surrounding Venezuelan foreign debts and the definition of the principles of operation of oil companies in Venezuela. The article examines the nature of external influence on Venezuela in the past and present. A change in the personalities of the regime can be both a factor in future changes and just an episode that is imperceptible from the point of view of determining the real direction of the country's development. In Venezuela, for a long time after the fall of N. Maduro, new elections have not been announced. The authorities do not recognize the final power vacuum after the removal of Nicolas Maduro and treat the situation as a temporary crisis, and not as a reason for an immediate restart of the system. In this logic, power has been transferred to the acting president, essentially within the same regime. Therefore, the mechanism for early elections has not been launched for a long time. This may continue until a clear compromise is reached within the elite. In conditions when the US is busy with other crises, in particular around Iran, an additional opportunity is created for the consolidation of the Venezuelan regime on the old political principles, and most importantly, without significant personal changes in the regime's leaders. Thus, in the absence of external pressure, such a regime in Venezuela can function for a fairly long time, especially given the dominance of power structures associated with the regime and the flight from the country of a significant part of the most socially and politically active population. The changing economic climate, in particular the rise in oil prices as a result of events in the Middle East, also contributes to the preservation of the current regime in Venezuela. On the other hand, the fact that the authorities have decided not to push for the election of a new leader through elections may also indicate that the prospect and promise of change is being used by the regime as a means of mitigating the social reaction of the population. Therefore, this article analyzes the social, economic, demographic and psychological prerequisites for the development of the political situation in the country, the reform potential of this country.