The Springboard of 'Trump 2.0': Reset or Leap in Foreign Policy?

Abstract

The research aims to identify the degree of continuity and innovation in the foreign policy of Trump's second-term administration compared to his first presidency (2017-2021) and to determine the nature of the new strategic framework formation in American foreign policy in the context of the global world order transformation.

The methodological foundation of the study combines the neorealist approach to foreign policy analysis with elements of organizational theory and the concept of «grand strategy». Systemic, comparative, and institutional analyses are applied to evaluate personnel appointments, rhetorical changes, and practical actions of the administration. Special attention is paid to the «gray rhino» concept as an analytical framework for understanding the phenomenon of Trump's return and its impact on international relations. The empirical basis of the research includes official documents and statements, personnel appointments, and actual foreign policy decisions of both Trump administrations.

It has been established that Trump's second term is characterized by higher institutional coherence achieved through the appointment of ideologically aligned and loyal personnel. The evolution of the «America First» doctrine toward a pragmatic understanding of global leadership has been revealed. Elements of complete continuity (tough stance on China, priority of bilateral relations, focus on trade imbalances), adaptive continuity (approach to NATO and European allies), and innovations (new balance between hard power and diplomacy, «technological sovereignty» strategy) have been identified. Key lessons from the first term that influenced the formation of new approaches have been determined: awareness of the institutional limitations of presidential power, the importance of preparing international partners for changes in American policy, and the need for a systematic approach to using economic instruments of foreign policy.

Trump's second term does not represent a simple return to the approaches of his first presidency but demonstrates the formation of a more mature and systematic foreign policy strategy that takes into account the experience of the first term and changes in the international environment. The new «Trump Doctrine» includes five interconnected elements: strategic pragmatism, selective engagement, economy as a security tool, power balancing, and transactional unilateralism. Analysis through the lens of the «gray rhino» concept demonstrates that Trump's return was a predictable event, but the international community was unprepared for its consequences for the global world order.