The Transformation of Ukraine’s Party System during Martial Law (2022–2025): Current State, Challenges, and Future Scenarios

Abstract

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the transformations of Ukraine’s party system during the full-scale war of 2022–2025. The concept of the critical juncture is applied to interpret Russia’s invasion as a turning point in institutional development. The study covers three main aspects: the state of the party system before the war, the functioning of political parties under martial law, and possible scenarios for post-war development. Before the invasion, the system was characterized by fragmentation, personalization, and dependence on oligarchic groups. Martial law led to social consolidation, the suspension of interparty competition, the banning of pro-Russian parties, and the concentration of power in the executive branch. Based on sociological surveys, Freedom House indices (Nations in Transit 2024, Freedom in the World 2024), Transparency International’s CPI, European Commission reports, and scholarly literature, the article concludes that Ukraine’s future party system will likely evolve according to three scenarios: victors’ hegemony, oligarchic restoration, or ideological renewal. The most optimistic scenario is associated with the institutionalization of new societal values — solidarity, trust, and civic responsibility — and the construction of a European model of party democracy.

The scientific novelty of the study lies in the conceptualization of the transformation of Ukraine’s party system under martial law through the lens of critical juncture theory, as well as in the identification of new axes of post-war political competition (security-related, ideological, and governance-oriented).

The author’s contribution consists in the integration of empirical data from international democracy indices, sociological surveys, and qualitative institutional analysis, which made it possible to develop a scenario-based model of the post-war evolution of Ukraine’s party system.