Generative Content as a Driver of Electoral Influence: Risks and Scenarios for Ukraine

Abstract

The article examines generative content as an independent factor influencing electoral campaigns within the contemporary Ukrainian political and information environment. The study aims to identify the specific features of the impact of deepfake technologies on electoral processes in Ukraine, to map vulnerabilities in the national information space, to develop a typology of relevant threats, and to propose an approach to risk assessment and scenario-based analysis. The methodological framework combines combination of qualitative analysis of academic approaches to the study of disinformation, scenario modeling, elements of risk-oriented analysis, and the contextualization of international experience in light of Ukrainian realities. Particular attention is given to interpreting deepfake not only as a tool of manipulation but also as a factor shaping the epistemic conditions of political trust formation. The results of the study identify key characteristics of the Ukrainian information environment that amplify the effectiveness of generative content, including rapid information dissemination, the dominance of digital platforms, the significant role of emotionally charged messages, and the increased trust in informal sources. On this basis, the studydevelops a typology of major threats, including procedural deception through false official messages, reputational erosion via synthetic audio and video materials, and the systemic undermining of the legitimacy of the electoral process. The scenario analysis demonstrates that these threats can interact, generating a cumulative effect and gradually reshaping the perception of political reality. The conclusions indicate that the most significant impact of generative content is manifested in the long-term erosion of trust in political institutions and procedures. The proposed approach to risk assessment and scenario analysis provides a systematic framework for understanding potential uses of such technologies in electoral campaigns and can serve as an analytical basis for further research and the development of countermeasures.