Geopolitical competition for Arctic resources as a factor in the transformation of the global balance of power

Abstract

The relevance of this study stems from the rapid transformation of the Arctic from a peripheral zone into one of the key geopolitical centers, where major powers project their foreign policy ambitions through a combination of resource, logistical, and security potential. Climate change, the scarcity of strategic materials, and the intensification of global competition are driving a struggle for control over the region, turning the Arctic into a tool for addressing both domestic and international challenges. In this context, there is a growing need to rethink governance models for polar territories, analyze new mechanisms of geopolitical influence, and assess the Arctic’s role in reshaping the system of international relations.

The aim of the study is to identify the strategic factors contributing to the Arctic's growing geopolitical significance and to reveal how states convert its resource and logistical potential into geopolitical capital.

The methodology is based on analytical and comparative approaches, supplemented by elements of geopolitical modeling to forecast scenarios of global power reconfiguration. The empirical foundation consists of case analyses of the Arctic strategies of the United States, Russia, China, Canada, Norway, and Denmark, relying on official documents, international institutional reports, and materials from leading research centers.

The findings demonstrate that Russia and China are forming a strategic axis focused on militarized development of the region, while the United States seeks to counterbalance them through critical infrastructure containment and sanctions. Canada attempts to balance sovereign presence with environmental legitimization, whereas sustainability-oriented countries like Norway and Denmark display vulnerability to more aggressive geopolitical maneuvers. Since 2022, due to escalating global tensions, the role of multilateral mechanisms – particularly the Arctic Council – has significantly declined, and the region is increasingly governed through bloc-based competition.

The study concludes that the struggle for the Arctic has become an integral part of global geopolitical rivalry, deepening the fragmentation of the international legal order and legitimizing militarized models of resource governance.

Future research should focus on the development of institutional stabilization scenarios, the role of non-Arctic actors, and the Arctic’s function in shaping a new architecture of global dominance.